Don’t miss this dispatch on minors living in detention centers at the border
NBC’s Jacob Soboroff: “Life inside the biggest licensed child care facility in the nation for undocumented immigrant children looks more like incarceration than temporary shelter. The kids, a mix of those who crossed into the U.S. unaccompanied and those who were separated from their parents under Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ new zero-tolerance policy, spend 22 hours per day during the week (21 hours on weekends) locked inside a converted former Walmart, packing five into rooms built for four. It currently houses nearly 1,500 boys ranging from 10 to 17 years old.”
The true swing voters? Watching the voters who disapprove of both parties:
In our review of the 2016 election, one of the clues we missed on Donald Trump was his overperformance among voters who disliked BOTH Trump and Hillary Clinton. These voters made up 18 percent of voters in our merged NBC/WSJ polls of 2016, and they disproportionately broke for Trump and Republicans on the generic ballot.
Well, learning from that 2016 lesson, here is the merged congressional preference among voters with a negative view of BOTH parties:
- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ (so far): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
Are Dem prospects looking up in Ohio?
As one of us wrote yesterday, “A day after a Cincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk poll showed Democrats ahead in Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, a new Quinnipiac poll released [Wednesday] finds the same result, although the gubernatorial contest is within the margin of error. According to the Quinnipiac survey, Democrat Richard Cordray gets support from 42 percent of registered voters in the gubernatorial race, versus 40 percent for Republican Mike DeWine. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Cordray 43 percent, DeWine 36 percent among likely voters.)”
“And in Quinnipiac’s test of the Senate race, it’s Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, at 51 percent among registered voters and Republican challenger Jim Renacci at 34 percent. (The Enquirer/Suffolk poll had it Brown 53 percent, Renacci 37 percent.)”
“In maybe the Quinnipiac poll’s most striking numbers, President Trump’s job-approval rating in Ohio is at 43 percent, while outgoing Republican Gov. John Kasich’s is at 52 percent.”
Another poll: Democrats ahead by double digits in Pennsylvania
And a Franklin & Marshall poll finds Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., ahead of GOP Senate nominee Lou Barletta by 17 points, 44 percent to 27 percent, with 28 percent undecided. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s incumbent Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf at 48 percent, Republican Scott Wagner at 29 percent.